March 2026
The strategy returned +5.47% net in March with zero drawdown as derivatives markets normalized following the February deleveraging event.
March marked a return to the strategy's core operating environment. Perpetual futures markets transitioned from February's sustained directional event into a regime more consistent with the strategy's design parameters. The system scaled exposure accordingly throughout the month.
01 / Performance
The strategy returned +5.47% net in March across 26 active trading days. Every trading day closed positive. Returns were distributed throughout the month with a gradual acceleration as market conditions improved. Activity recovered substantially from February but remained below January's pace, consistent with the rebuilding phase of leveraged positioning across the venue set.
All returns are reported net of commissions and funding costs.
02 / Market Structure
March opened with Bitcoin near $66,000 and the Fear & Greed index still in extreme fear territory — a reading that persisted for 59 consecutive days by month end, the longest such streak since the FTX collapse. Despite this sentiment backdrop, the underlying derivatives structure shifted meaningfully.
BTC futures open interest rebuilt to approximately $112 billion through the month, but the composition of that positioning was heavily short-biased. Funding rates remained flat to negative across major venues, and the bulk of new contracts being opened were shorts rather than longs. Short positioning became crowded, particularly around the $72,000–$75,000 range, producing recurring squeeze-driven dislocations as price advanced.
The clearest example occurred on March 2, when a short-covering event drove Bitcoin approximately 5% higher in a single session. The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% at its March 18 meeting but raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%, triggering a sharp move from $74,000 to approximately $71,000 and a $129 million single-day ETF outflow.
Institutional flows turned net positive for the first time in 2026, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $1.32 billion in net inflows for the month — snapping four consecutive months of outflows.
03 / Risk & Execution
Maximum drawdown was zero — no peak-to-trough decline was recorded at any point during the period. Leverage remained conservative throughout. Risk gating and exposure controls operated within expected parameters.
The system remained fully systematic with no discretionary overrides.
04 / Closing
March confirmed that the structural conditions driving the strategy's performance reasserted themselves once markets moved beyond February's sustained deleveraging. The broader macro environment remained uncertain — geopolitical tensions, a cautious Fed, and persistent extreme-fear sentiment all weighed on directional conviction. The strategy's returns were uncorrelated to these factors.
The system continues to operate within all defined parameters.